A sustained move under $53.61 will signal the existence of sellers indicating a bull trap. This may trigger a labored break with potential targets weighing $52.40, $51.29 and $50.66. If $50.66 fails as support then look for the supplying extend to the main retracement zone at $50.28 to $48.83.

A sustained move over $54.00 will indicate the use of buyers. This will likely also indicate that Friday’s move was fueled by fake buying rather and merely buy stops. The upside momentum won’t continue and testing $54.98 is really a pipe dream for buyers from fuelled trade talks.

Lifting Iranian sanctions will have a significant influence on the entire world oil market. Iran’s oil reserves would be the fourth largest on the globe with a production capacity of around 4 million barrels per day, driving them to the second largest producer in OPEC. Iran’s oil reserves are the cause of approximately 10% of the world’s total proven petroleum reserves, at the rate with the 2006 production the reserves in Iran could last 98 years. Probably Iran create about One million barrels of oil a day to the market and according to the world bank this may lead to the cut in the crude oil price by $10 per barrel next year.

In accordance with Data from OPEC, at the start of 2013 the biggest oil deposits come in Venezuela being 20% of worldwide oil reserves, Saudi Arabia 18%, Canada 13% and Iran 9%. Due to characteristics from the reserves it isn’t always easy to bring this oil for the surface due to the limitation on extraction technologies and also the cost to extract.

As China’s increased demand for propane as an option to fossil fuel further reduces overall interest in oil, the increase in supply from Iran as well as the continuation Saudi Arabia putting more oil on top of the market should begin to see the price drop over the next Twelve months and several analysts are predicting prices will fall under the $30’s.

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